This is really a tough spot for the Nationals after a long home stand they don't get any days off while the Padres come in fresh following a day off. Now they have to fly all the way to San Diego to play a night game with their starting pitcher being on just 4 days rest while Tyson Ross is on 5 days rest. I think we are getting value here considering Tanner Roak pitched a gem the last time out against the Padres 9 scoreless innings. However, he's been another story on the road and during night starts posting 5.65 ERA and 4.72 ERA at night. He's coming off 4 days rest and 100+ pitches. The last time he threw 100 + pitches he followed up with his owrst outing of the year allowing 7 ER. His raw stats are all indicating he's not as good as Tyson Ross who has an xFIP of 3.26 compared to Roak's 4.02.

Padres are at home and the Nationals are 17-39 in their last 56 as a dog 14-38 in their last 52 as a road dog. Ross has a 1.54 ERA in 41 innings at home this year and on 5 days rest over 4 starts in 2014 carries a 1.71 ERA. I'm expecting another 7+ innings of 1 ER or better ball while the bullpen continues to dominate.